FAVORITE WIN RATE STILL HIGH -- BUT AVERAGE PRICE UP DUE TO "BOMBERS"
The percentage of favored horses finding their way to the winners circle at Harrah's Philadelphia stayed high during this past week's racing -- the chalk won exactly half the races (28 of 56) from this past Wednesday to Sunday, keeping the win ratio slightly above 50% in the young meet. But the meet average win price went up over 20%, to almost $9.00, due to the fact that a few of the "bombers," the $50+ longshots, also found their way home -- one on Thursday, and then two on Friday. Two horses may vie for favoritism in each of today's $16,000 features (see WATCH OUT FOR, below) but at least the "upset factor" is back in the local air after last week.
2nd race: In his two starts against this class, Q'S CRUISE has had the task of closing from far back into last halves in the vicinity of 56, and has gained well, but come up shy. He has to learn to get out and rolling early. Nonetheless, we will try him one more time, because Tetrick picked him ahead of LAST GUNFIGHTER, very promising off a big debut.
5th race: TRIXIE DUST has had one start this year, where she came home in 56.2 - 28.1 from Parts Unknown. BROADWAY IDOLE has had no pari-mutuel starts this year, but did race well against tough misses last year. Three weeks from now, "IDOLE" may well show the talent to win -- but the race is TODAY, and TRIXIE's tightener gives her the edge.
9th race: BALLINROBE just missed against the good KID PK a level above last time -- he seems to be the one to beat. We're not sure how CARDIAC FASHION will like starting from the trailing post nine. R M BLACKHAWK has a history of giving good performances if the trip absolutely goes his way -- which it might from the rail -- may be gimmick value.
14th race: BETTORS GLASS couldn't do much from post eight in a 1:50.4 mile in his return to the races last time; today he drops and draws the best post at Harrah's. EIGHTEEN is in a good spot, but his stretch endurance has not been at his best. It may be worth looking at 5-1 Exactas and 5-1-[whatever) in bigger gimmick tickets. (Check Late Doubles, too!)
WATCH OUT FOR:Today's card at Philly is an unusual one in that, in quite a few races, there are one or (more often) two horses who appear to have the speed to be the winner, and then only a couple (two or three) who seem to have the ability to be the most logical mates in the upper parts of gimmicks. In short, THIS IS NOT A DAY TO BOX -- some of the longshots have little chance to win or maybe even get on the board, and (if flat!) the good ones are not likely to be worst than second. The "part-wheel" bet may work best with (in many cases) the top two choices played solely on top 1-2/2-1, with "the next tier" used in the underside position(s).